Global GHG Emission Coverage of Second Kyoto Commitment Period?

Based on the current state of likely participation in the second Kyoto commitment period, and using 2008 GHG emission data from the World Resources Institute (which exclude land use/bunker fuels), the global coverage of the second Kyoto commitment period looks rather bleak.  (Link for WRI data is here:  http://www.wri.org/tools/cait/ )

As is currently understood, Russia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and the US are not likely/will not be taking on QELROs (quantitative emission limit/reduction obligations) in the second commitment period.  With the exception of Kazakhstan and Belarus, other current non-Annex B countries (i.e. the developing countries/emerging economies) will not be taking on QELROs either.  (That is being put off to the negotiation for a future agreement that would start in 2020 .)

Based on that, here are some interesting numbers:

1.  World Total GHG Emissions in 2008:  29986 MMT (million metric tons)

2.  Emissions of top 10 countries in 2008: 20166 MMT (67.25% of world total)
3.  Emission of next 15 countries in 2008:   5219 MMT (17.40% of world total)
4.  Next 14 countries (100-200 MMT/year): 2021 MMT (6.74%)
5.  Next 56 countries (10-100 MMT/year): 2255 MMT (7.5%)
6.  Next 55 countries (1-10 MMT/year):  248 MMT (0.8%)
7.  Bottom 35 (0-1 MMT/year):  13 MMT (0.04%)

Russia, Canada, Japan, and US: 9022 MMT (30% of world total)

17 of the top 25 emitters (lines 2&3) will not have binding QELROs either because they were not originally part of Annex B (i.e. developing countries/emerging economies) or they chose not to take on new QELROs for second commmitment period.  These 17 countries will make up 74% of global emissions. 

The remaining 8 (of the top 25) emitters make up 11.13% of global emissions.

A rough/ballpark guess at the likely second period Annex B parties (which will be primarily the EU and some of the economies in transition/former Soviet block countries) is that they will make up about 15% of global emissions.

So this is where things seem to be headed:

1.  The second commitment period will only cover about 15% of the global GHG emissions
2.  Non-participation by 4 (Russia, Canada, Japan, US) of the 6 largest GHG emitters among developed economies drops 30% from participation in the second commitment period.
3.   Combined with non-participation by developing/emerging economies, 17 of the top 25 emitters will not participate in the second commitment period – making up 74% of global emissions. 
4.  The remaining 8 states of the top 25 emitters will make up about 11% of global emissions.

Thus, the non-participation decision by Russia, Canada, Japan, and US reduce the effective scope of emission coverage by about 3/4 of Annex B.

One final thought:  IF the top 25 emitters (both industrialized and developing/emerging economies) were to get together and negotiate an agreement just among themselves, they would be able to address about 85% of global emissions.  These 25 countries would also make up about 65% (4.5 billion people) of world population.

Now think about that and discuss amongst yourselves . . .

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