Based on the current state of likely participation in the second Kyoto commitment period, and using 2008 GHG emission data from the World Resources Institute (which exclude land use/bunker fuels), the global coverage of the second Kyoto commitment period looks rather bleak. (Link for WRI data is here: http://www.wri.org/tools/cait/ )
As is currently understood, Russia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and the US are not likely/will not be taking on QELROs (quantitative emission limit/reduction obligations) in the second commitment period. With the exception of Kazakhstan and Belarus, other current non-Annex B countries (i.e. the developing countries/emerging economies) will not be taking on QELROs either. (That is being put off to the negotiation for a future agreement that would start in 2020 .)
Based on that, here are some interesting numbers:
1. World Total GHG Emissions in 2008: 29986 MMT (million metric tons)
2. Emissions of top 10 countries in 2008: 20166 MMT (67.25% of world total)
3. Emission of next 15 countries in 2008: 5219 MMT (17.40% of world total)
4. Next 14 countries (100-200 MMT/year): 2021 MMT (6.74%)
5. Next 56 countries (10-100 MMT/year): 2255 MMT (7.5%)
6. Next 55 countries (1-10 MMT/year): 248 MMT (0.8%)
7. Bottom 35 (0-1 MMT/year): 13 MMT (0.04%)
Russia, Canada, Japan, and US: 9022 MMT (30% of world total)
17 of the top 25 emitters (lines 2&3) will not have binding QELROs either because they were not originally part of Annex B (i.e. developing countries/emerging economies) or they chose not to take on new QELROs for second commmitment period. These 17 countries will make up 74% of global emissions.
The remaining 8 (of the top 25) emitters make up 11.13% of global emissions.
A rough/ballpark guess at the likely second period Annex B parties (which will be primarily the EU and some of the economies in transition/former Soviet block countries) is that they will make up about 15% of global emissions.
So this is where things seem to be headed:
1. The second commitment period will only cover about 15% of the global GHG emissions
2. Non-participation by 4 (Russia, Canada, Japan, US) of the 6 largest GHG emitters among developed economies drops 30% from participation in the second commitment period.
3. Combined with non-participation by developing/emerging economies, 17 of the top 25 emitters will not participate in the second commitment period – making up 74% of global emissions.
4. The remaining 8 states of the top 25 emitters will make up about 11% of global emissions.
Thus, the non-participation decision by Russia, Canada, Japan, and US reduce the effective scope of emission coverage by about 3/4 of Annex B.
One final thought: IF the top 25 emitters (both industrialized and developing/emerging economies) were to get together and negotiate an agreement just among themselves, they would be able to address about 85% of global emissions. These 25 countries would also make up about 65% (4.5 billion people) of world population.
Now think about that and discuss amongst yourselves . . .